(JakGlobe) KMP(Kalla-Mega-Paloh) dillema: Jokowi's has recently been growing distant from Megawati

12/12/2018

President Joko Widodo’s recent appointment of attorney general H.M. Prasetyo amid strident criticism for the new AG’s former membership in the National Democrat party, or Nasdem, suggests a significant shift in the political calculus on which the president has been relying.

Analysts identify three “tremendous” political challenges Joko faces.

Hanta Yudha, the executive director of Pol-tracking Institute, said Joko’s relations with his own party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, (PDI-P) are changing.

It’s been something of an open secret that his party’s elite have been less than happy with chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri’s decision to nominate Joko as the their party’s presidential candidate. At the time, Joko was — and remains in many’s eyes — a junior figure in the party, which he joined in 2005, the same year he ran for mayor of Solo.

Those knowledgeable in the PDI-P’s internal affairs privately tell the Jakarta Globe that the party’s half-hearted support for Joko in the presidential race was among the reasons for his quickly declining popularity in the months leading up to election day amid relentless character attacks by opponents.

Hanta said the PDI-P had been divided in two ahead of the election: the majority block that favored Megawati to run for a second presidency and the minority faction that supported Joko’s nomination.

“In the end, Jokowi obtained a ticket to run in the presidential election,” Hanta said, referring to the president with his popular nickname. “But he used the ticket that originally belonged to Mega.

To the pro-Mega camp, she’s done a great favor for Jokowi.

“Those two groups united to face off with Prabowo [Subianto, rival presidential candidate]. But they’re still there, and there are potentials for them to re-emerge.”

PDI-P lawmakers’ divided stance on subsidized the fuel price hike is an indication to this, Muhammad Qodari of Indo Barometer said.

Joko’s appointment of only four cabinet ministers from the PDI-P may be another indication, some believe, since Joko also handed Nasdem and the National Awakening Party (PKB) four cabinet posts each.

In terms of political calculations, PDI-P members believe their party should have gotten more seats, given that it is the largest party in minority coalition that supports the president’s administration, Qodari said.

“Jokowi probably no longer feels comfortable with the process within the PDI-P. He probably feels that it hasn’t supported, hasn’t defended him enough,” Qodari added.

An anonymous source inside the party told the Jakarta Globe that the president has recently been growing distant from Megawati — and even no longer speaks directly with her.

Joko, however, still needs the PDI-P, Hanta said. As the largest caucus in the House minority Awesome Indonesia Coalition (KIH), the party presents itself as Joko’s only shield against the hostile
majority the Red-White Coalition (KMP).

Political analysts say that the majority coalition’s aggressive maneuvers to gain control of the House leadership, are seen by partisans as “revenge politics” — payback a bitter loss in the July presidential election.

Political scientists familiar with more developed democratic traditions elsewhere have, by contrast, noted that majority election of legislatures’ leadership is a normal and proper feature of democratic institutions.

Many have even expressed optimism that the present exercise in divided government will enhance Indonesia’s democratic institutions and processes — a sentiment echoed by Joko himself.

The first step toward reform is changing minds, and that requires good communication, Hanta says.

“Joko must have a strategy, how to maintain political communication with the PDI-P. He must not be dictated to by the PDI-P, but cannot be completely detached from it either,” he said. “He must maintain support from all parties [in KIH], and PDI-P is one of those parties. Jokowi must deal with this issue proportionally.”

The appointment of former Nasdem politician H.M. Prasetyo as the nation’s attorney general has been seen by some observers as evidence of Nasdem chairman and media mogul Surya Paloh’s growing influence over Joko.

Joko’s announcement of Prasetyo as his choice for the nation’s top law enforcement official last week came just hours after the president met privately with Surya. Megawati is reportedly unhappy with this.

Qodari said Joko may forge alliances with Nasdem to balance power battles waged around him by Megawati, Surya and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

Qodari said that in order to avoid being dominated by Megawati and the PDI-P, Joko needed to ally more other sources of support, such as Surya and Kalla.

“He may even need a new party to lean on; that’s what we can read from the situation with Nasdem and Surya Paloh,” he said.

Djayadi Hanan, research director of political think tank Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting, disagrees, however, with the characterization that Joko lacks agency or control of what others see as an unfolding struggle for power by those around him.

Djayadi points to his cabinet lineup, for example, as a compromise between Joko’s own preferences, Kalla’s picks and expectations from political parties that supported Joko’s presidential bid. “At the very least, it shows that he’s compromising. It doesn’t necessarily means he’s not being independent,” Djayadi said.

Joko has been visibly building his own power base by appointing close and trusted aides for several posts, such as Andi Widjajanto as cabinet secretary, Pratikno as state secretary and Andrinof Chaniago as the national development planning minister.

Economist Faisal Basri’s appointment as head of the so-called Anti-Oil and Gas Mafia Task Force is another example, Djayadi said. Together, these four men from Joko’s inner circle are generally seen as having party affiliations.

“Those appointments are his way of building his independence,” Djayadi said.

Joko is also attempting to balance and solidify lines of authority as he prepares his administration to face the House majority opposition Red-White coalition.

Djayadi says despite consolidating his administration’s lines of authority, Joko will also need to effectively lobby parties in the in the Red-White Coalition if he hopes to advance parts of his agenda that require legislative approval.

The president will also need to work on defining his “pro-people” policies in order to maintain and broaden public support, Djayadi said.

Joko will further need to have constitutional law on his side in dealing with conflicts in the House — and that will require solid, expert subject advisers, Qodari added, pointing to the president’s controversial recent order barring ministers from obeying House lawmakers summonses to oversight hearings.

“Jokowi must remember that he must only bow to two things: the Constitution and the people.”

JejakParlemen

Berita Terkait

Kategori Berita

(JakGlobe) KMP(Kalla-Mega-Paloh) dillema: Jokowi's has recently been growing distant from Megawati